As I watch helplessly Cathal going through the various stages of his recovery from open heart surgery, I have been wandering what odds he has beaten to be where he is and have what he has.
Statistics are not my forte, but I had to dabble in them at one stage. I don’t remember much, however I think I can still remember how to calculate the odds of a series of events happening. So if any statistician wants to correct any mistake I make along the way, please do so. And I must explain one thing: as the percentages I found vary greatly from one source to another, they are a lot of assumptions here. As the results will show, we come to a stage where the details don’t matter much any more.
Odds of Cathal being born with DS with a mother aged 28: 1/755
Odds of him having a congenital heart defect: 45% - so odds brought to 1/1,678
Odds of defect being Complete Atrio-Ventricular Septal Defect (AVSD): no exact figures, but most common with DS, so let’s say 50% = 1/3,356
Odds of having Pulmonary Stenosis (PS): again no exact figures, but quite common with DS as well, so let’s say 40% = 1/4,195
Odds of having Double Outlet Right Ventricle (DORV): not so common, major assumption here, let’s say 20% = 1/8,390
Add them up together, total so far = 1/15,941
Odds of having all three conditions at the same time? Hummmmm. I am making a call here, from the height of my non-existent knowledge in this field, and I say 10% - we are now reaching the dizzying heights of 1/79,705
So there we have it: 1 chance in close to 80,000.
And now for the little block on the recovery road. As a side issue of the surgery, a little part of his body has not been healing as expected. My little prince has had his fair share of misery in the last couple of weeks, all relating to attempts to stimulate this healing process. On Thursday last, as no lasting improvement had been observed, the cardio-surgical team called it: if no miracle occurs over the weekend, we will proceed with a more drastic action that has a great success rate, but is going to be very painful for Cathal…
Oh no, not again, no more pain, please, no more pain. It is so horrible to see such a young child in pain, despite the morphine and other drugs, to stand by his bed and feel so helpless, to wonder how you could take some of this on you and relieve him…
And he has been pocked, picked, tested, and what have you, so often at this stage, he does not trust the intentions of any of the clinicians: any one crossing the door into his room who is not either of his parents or a familiar face from “the outside” gets a strong telling off. And if this person touches him, cries and screams ensue… Who can blame him! I would do the same.
And guess what? The odds of this type of “hick-up” after open hear surgery is … 5%. So unless my calculator is deceiving me, the overall odds of Cathal being at the stage he is at are 1 chance in over 1.5 million!
Gosh! How lucky is my little prince?
I do not know if it is his luck coming around again. I do not know if it is my telling him that Enough Is Enough, that he has proven he can get a bull’s eye every time, that his Mammy and the Dad are quite exhausted and need a break, and that now we need some proper recovery... I do not know what is doing it, but, it seems, and I am very careful here, I do not want to jinks anything, but indeed it seems there have been definite signs of improvement in the last two days. As if the team’s decision on a plan of action had been enough to prove this might not be necessary after all.
So let’s all cross our fingers…
Having said all this, I have not even spoken about the incredible luck of Cathal being born in this era and this country, where a total repair of all three defects not only can be carried out, but is carried out, even on children with DS. It has not always been the case, and there are places on this planet where it is not the case.
And then he has also the incredible luck of having the parents he has, and the love they pour on him. And that cannot be taken for granted either!
In the mean time, looking at these odds, I am thinking that Cathal is very VERY precious indeed. Of course, I did not need any figures to prove this to me. I have known it since he was born.